El Nino could disrupt India's monsoon, IMD warns
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that India's southwest monsoon could weaken again due to the strengthening of El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. The warning comes after a period of widespread rainfall across the country for nine consecutive days, bringing some relief from heatwave. However, this respite may be short-lived as atmospheric conditions are expected to become less favorable for rainfall from mid-July onwards.
Weather phenomenon
What is El Nino and its impact on Indian monsoon
El Nino is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon usually disrupts the southwest monsoon by altering moisture flow toward the Indian subcontinent. The IMD has predicted that these conditions will further intensify during this year's southwest monsoon season, potentially affecting rainfall distribution across India.
Weather oscillation
MJO enters less favorable phase for widespread rainfall
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also being monitored as it enters a less favorable phase for widespread rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Weather models indicate that the active monsoon phase may weaken after around July 13, with fewer low-pressure systems expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal. This could reduce moisture transport into India and trigger a temporary break in monsoon activity.
Rainfall forecast
Extreme heat conditions expected in some states
The weakening of the monsoon could lead to below-normal rainfall in western, southern, and parts of central India over the next fortnight. States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala are likely to be affected by this change in weather patterns. Meanwhile, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Assam may experience extreme heat during this period.
Agricultural impact
Impact on agriculture and water resources
The forecasted long dry spell could have a significant impact on rain-fed crops, affecting both sowing and early crop growth. If below-normal rainfall persists, it could also put stress on water storage and irrigation planning. However, the southwest monsoon has its own cycle of active and weak phases with low-pressure systems likely to form later this summer in July and August.