El Nino has arrived, will strengthen during monsoon: IMD warns
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the arrival of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weather phenomenon is expected to intensify further during this year's southwest monsoon season. In its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin, the IMD noted that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed El Nino thresholds.
Weather forecast
El Nino's intensification expected
The Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) forecasts that El Nino will likely intensify as the season progresses. The three-month average Nio 3.4 index, a key indicator of the phenomenon, has crossed +0.5°C, confirming the onset of El Nino conditions. The IMD also observed strong positive temperature anomalies beneath the ocean surface in large parts of the equatorial Pacific, indicating continued warming waters and reinforcement of the event in coming months.
Agricultural concerns
What is El Nino and its impact on India
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In India, it has been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and increased drought risk. The last El Nino episode was observed in 2023, while similar conditions were seen in 2002, 2009, and 2015. These years witnessed varying degrees of monsoon disruption across India.
Contingency plans
Government takes precautionary measures
In light of these concerns, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has said that 197 vulnerable districts have been identified by the central government. State-specific contingency plans are being prepared to mitigate risks. The government has also stockpiled seeds and other agricultural inputs as a precautionary measure. He said a nationwide farmer outreach program called 'Khet Bachao Abhiyan' has also been launched to raise awareness about climate-resilient farming practices.
Ongoing monitoring
Neutral IOD conditions prevail in Indian Ocean
The southwest monsoon entered Kerala on June 4 and is expected to cover the entire country by July 15. The IMD will continue monitoring the evolving Pacific Ocean conditions and issue monthly updates as the monsoon season progresses. While there are concerns over El Nino's impact, the IMD said neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean, which are unlikely to significantly amplify or offset El Nino's effects this year.