Monsoon delay: India faces 41% rainfall deficit this month
What's the story
India's southwest monsoon has hit a major roadblock, especially over southern Maharashtra. The delay in the rains has resulted in a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41% between June 4 and June 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The country received only 42.6mm of rainfall against the normal of 72.2mm during this period. Central India is the worst affected with a deficit of 67%, followed by east and northeast India (42%), and the southern peninsula (22%).
Weather dynamics
Why is the monsoon delayed?
The IMD attributes the monsoon slowdown to a lack of large-scale weather systems and a weak surge from the Arabian Sea. This surge is crucial for pushing moisture-laden winds inland and triggering widespread rainfall. The absence of this mechanism has left the monsoon struggling to gain strength. Low-level southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea have also weakened, further reducing moisture transport toward Maharashtra and adjoining regions.
Weather patterns
Other factors contributing to monsoon slowdown
The IMD has also noted the absence of major monsoon systems such as low-pressure areas or cyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. These systems usually help push the monsoon deeper into India. Another factor contributing to the slowdown is a weak phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which normally enhances cloud formation and rainfall over India when active.
Future outlook
Contingency plans for farmers
Despite these challenges, the IMD predicts possible relief with increased rainfall activity over the Konkan region around June 24-25. This delay in the monsoon is particularly concerning for India's kharif sowing season. In light of this situation, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has asked officials to identify districts prone to low or uneven rainfall and prepare contingency plans. He has urged states to focus on water conservation and moisture management strategies to mitigate impacts on farmers.