IMD warns El Nino may weaken India's southwest monsoon mid-July

India Jul 10, 2026

Heads up: The IMD says El Nino could weaken India's southwest monsoon starting mid-July 2026.
After a short burst of heavy rain in early July that helped crops and eased drought worries, the weather is expected to turn drier as fewer low-pressure systems form over the Bay of Bengal.

India faces below-normal rainfall and extremes

Several states, like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala, could see below-normal rainfall because of El Nino.
Meanwhile, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Assam might face sharp weather swings with risks of both floods and heatwaves.
A longer dry spell could also impact crops and water storage for the rest of the season.