Monsoon revival likely between June 12-18, says IMD
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a likely revival of the southwest monsoon between June 12 and 18. This comes following a pause in its progress since May 29.
A weather system may develop over the Bay of Bengal around June 12-13; however, its formation remains uncertain due to mixed signals from different forecast models.
Rainfall forecast
Monsoon revival will be followed by widespread rainfall
The extended-range forecast suggests a likely revival of the southwest monsoon between June 12 and 18, regardless of whether a weather system forms over the Bay of Bengal.
Following the revival, widespread rainfall is expected across central India, parts of Maharashtra, and regions of the southern peninsula where the monsoon has already advanced.
The overall progress of the monsoon will largely depend on how evenly the rainfall is distributed.
Rainfall distribution
Forecast brings hope for dry areas
The forecast offers optimism for regions facing dry conditions, as the southwest monsoon has shown sluggish progress over the past week.
According to the IMD's extended-range outlook, the monsoon is likely to advance over additional parts of central and eastern India between June 12 and 18.
During this period, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy showers, is expected over several areas of the southern peninsula and adjoining central India.
Cyclonic forecast
Skymet's forecast for developing system
Skymet Weather has projected the development of a precursor cyclonic circulation over the west-central Bay of Bengal by June 10.
This system is expected to reorganize and consolidate over the following 48 hours.
The emerging system is likely to trigger weather activity along the eastern coastline from June 11. It may take a slightly southern track, moving across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra.