
'Parity for BJP-JD(U), Chirag Paswan's gain': Analyzing NDA's Bihar seat-sharing
What's the story
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Sunday finalized its seat-sharing arrangement for the upcoming Bihar elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) will contest an equal number of 101 seats each. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), led by Chirag Paswan, will contest 29 seats. Meanwhile, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), headed by Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha will fight on six seats each.
Power dynamics
JD(U) , BJP to contest equal number of seats
This is the first time since their alliance in 1996 that the JD(U) and BJP are contesting an equal number of seats. The development indicates a major shift in seat-sharing since the JD(U) has traditionally contested more seats whenever the two parties have been in alliance. In 2020, the JD(U) contested more seats (115) than the BJP (101), but had a lower conversion rate, winning 43 seats compared to the BJP's 74.
Strategy shift
Seat-sharing pact reflects BJP's growing dominance in Bihar
Media reports point out that the seat-sharing pact also indicates a larger power realignment in Bihar, with the BJP's national machinery and electoral strategy overshadowing Nitish Kumar's regional clout. Despite not having a bankable face, the BJP has relied on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to expand its influence in the state. The LJP's strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections also gave it bargaining power, with Paswan reportedly threatening to contest all 243 seats if his demands weren't met.
Seat reduction
HAM and RLM's seat share
Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) has been allocated six seats, one less than in 2020. His influence is largely limited to Gaya, and his reduced seat share is believed to be an appeasement for Paswan. Meanwhile, Rashtriya Lok Morcha's Kushwaha was reportedly repromised a Union ministerial position as part of the NDA's bargaining strategy.
Opposition delay
Opposition yet to finalize seat-sharing arrangement
On the other hand, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is yet to announce its seat-sharing arrangement for the two-phase Bihar election on November 6 and 11. The delay is reportedly said to be due to differences between the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The announcement for the seat sharing in the Mahagathbandhan is likely to happen on Monday, with Rahul Gandhi likely to meet RJD's Tejashwi Yadav and Vikassheel Insaan Party chief Mukesh Sahani.