Is AI use heating up Earth?
What's the story
A new study has revealed that artificial intelligence (AI) could be exacerbating climate change by increasing fossil fuel emissions. The research indicates that productivity gains from AI are resulting in more carbon pollution from fossil fuels than they are offsetting through renewable energy sources. The study is the first to assess AI's climate impact across the entire power sector, rather than just its indirect benefits like reducing renewable downtime and optimizing electricity grids.
Emission increase
AI's impact on emissions
The study found that net yearly carbon pollution could rise by 0.47-1.8 gigatonnes, or about 1-5% of the energy sector's annual emissions.
This is largely because AI is boosting productivity in oil drilling and gas extraction, leading to more pollution.
The researchers also discovered that net emissions only fell when AI didn't boost productivity in the fossil fuel sector.
Adoption disparity
Imbalance in AI adoption rates
The study's authors assumed that AI would be adopted at the same rate for fossil fuels and renewables.
However, they found that productivity gains for renewables would have to be at least four times higher than those for fossil fuels to offset emissions.
This suggests a potential imbalance in how quickly these technologies are being implemented across different energy sectors.
Industry impact
Oil and gas executives embrace AI potential
The International Energy Agency has estimated that AI could boost technically recoverable oil and gas reserves by 5% and reduce deepwater offshore project costs by 10%.
Oil and gas executives have welcomed this potential, dubbing it "the next fracking boom."
Saudi Aramco said last year that it had integrated AI into all its operations, boosting productivity and well numbers.
Financial gains
Predictions for digitalization and AI in fossil fuels
Rystad Energy, an independent research and energy intelligence company, estimated that digitalization and AI would generate nearly $500 billion in cumulative value for fossil fuel exploration and production companies between 2026 and 2030.
This is due to more efficient operations, increased production, and shorter development timelines.
The analysts noted that "the returns are already visible in the industry" with hundreds of millions of dollars reported as AI-related savings from Equinor and Abu Dhabi's Adnoc.