Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Moon in 2032
What's the story
Scientists are closely watching asteroid 2024 YR4 after new research suggested it could hit the Moon in 2032. The impact could create bright flashes and intense meteor activity across Earth's skies. The asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024, and initially raised alarms due to its potential Earth impact. However, further observations ruled out this possibility during its December 22, 2032, flyby.
Impact simulation
NASA estimates a 4.3% chance of lunar impact
NASA now estimates a 4.3% chance of lunar impact for the asteroid. A study published in 2025 on the arXiv preprint server explored possible outcomes if the asteroid hits the Moon. The research team, led by Yifei Jiao from UC Santa Cruz, used computer simulations to model both the asteroid's journey through the inner solar system and its potential collision with Earth's natural satellite.
Flash duration
Impact flash could outshine the Sun
The impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon could release energy equivalent to 6.5 million tons of TNT. This would create a flash as bright as Venus, lasting between 200-300 seconds. The predicted impact time is 10:19am EST (15:19 UTC), making it visible across East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii and western North America. However, there's only a slim chance (2.85%) impact occurs on the Moon's dark side where no sunlight falls, 70% of the Moon will be illuminated that day!
Aftermath predictions
Potential meteor storms on Earth
The impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 could trigger thousands of secondary flashes as debris falls back. These would be dimmer and harder to observe without instruments. The study also predicts up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material could escape toward Earth, potentially creating extreme meteor storms days or weeks later.