Extreme heat could double by 2050, warns Oxford study
By 2050, almost 4 billion people could face extreme heat—more than double 2010 levels—if global temperatures climb two degrees Celsius, says a new Oxford study.
That's a jump from about one in four people in 2010 to over two in five by mid-century.
Tropics will feel it most
Countries like India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines are set to see the biggest spikes in days needing cooling—and many homes may require air conditioning installations in the coming years.
For example, Nigeria could see a 16% rise in hot days; Brazil 20%; Uganda and Laos up to 25%.
Most of these changes happen before we even hit the 1.5°C warming mark.
Colder regions aren't off the hook
While fewer people will deal with extreme cold (dropping from 14% to just 7%), places like Norway and Ireland could see their hot days soar—Norway by 200% and Ireland by 230%.
That means cities built for cold weather might struggle as things heat up fast.
Data for future planning
To help leaders plan smarter, the researchers have shared detailed global maps showing where heating and cooling needs will change most—so governments can start prepping now.