Scientists develop new way to predict Indian monsoon

India gets its monsoons from the southwest monsoon winds.

The southwestern summer monsoons occur from July through September as the Thar Desert and adjoining areas of the northern and central Indian subcontinent heats up.

This causes a low pressure area over the northern and central Indian subcontinent, which draws moisture laden winds from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayas, bringing with them, the monsoon.

The monsoon forms a critical part of India's agricultural output.

Information about monsoon timing is key for Indian farmers to determine when to carry out the sowing.

Crops like rice, soybean and cotton are heavily dependent on the timeliness of the monsoons.

Even a slight deviation of the monsoon can lead to droughts or floods causing severe damage.

Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany have claimed to have developed a new way to predict the Indian monsoons.

Scientists said the new model predicts the monsoons significantly earlier than previously possible.

The researchers plan to propose this approach to the Indian Meteorological Department.

Researchers called it a breakthrough that may help maximise the subcontinent's food supplies.

According to officials, the method is based on a network analysis of regional weather data.

Scientists found that in North Pakistan and the Eastern Ghats, changes of temperatures and humidity mark a critical transition to the monsoon.

After testing their method with historical monsoon data, researchers said they achieved 75% correct predictions both at normal times, and in El Nino years as well.