Record El Nino threat could push Amazon toward degraded savanna
An El Nino that arrived in June 2026 and is increasingly likely to become the strongest on record has scientists seriously worried about the Amazon.
This event is set to heat up Pacific waters by 4 degrees Celsius by December, making droughts and wildfires in the rainforest even worse.
Combined with ongoing deforestation and climate change, there's a real risk the Amazon could shift toward a degraded savanna, the Amazon stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15 to 20 years of global CO2 emissions.
Amazon lost 17% to human disturbances
The Amazon has already lost 17% of its area to human disturbances such as logging, edge effects, and understory fires, and extreme droughts could bump that loss up to 38%.
Recent studies warn that if temperatures keep rising and forest cover keeps shrinking, up to 77% of the rainforest's ecosystem could be pushed past its limits.
Just two years ago, wildfires burned more than 44.2 million acres. Researchers say stronger El Nino events ahead could make things even worse.