Superbugs could cost $2 trillion/year, kill millions by 2050
What's the story
A new study by the Center for Global Development has warned that superbugs could lead to millions of deaths and cost the global economy nearly $2 trillion a year by 2050. The research highlights that if no action is taken, rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) rates could result in annual global GDP losses of $1.7 trillion over the next 25 years, which is part of the overall $2 trillion economic impact.
Economic impact
US, UK, and EU economies worst affected
The study predicts that the US, UK, and EU economies will be among the worst affected by the rise in AMR rates. Anthony McDonnell, lead author of the research and a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, noted that the significant reduction in Official Development Assistance by the US, which has cut its aid spend by roughly 80%, could drive up resistance rates in line with their most pessimistic scenario.
Funding concerns
Countries need to act now to prevent AMR cuts
McDonnell also warned that "even countries that have been successful in keeping AMR rates under control cannot afford to be complacent." He stressed that unless AMR programs are protected from aid cuts, resistance rates across the world will likely increase at a rate similar to the worst-affected countries. This could result in millions more deaths globally, including across G7 nations.
Study findings
China expected to suffer most economic losses
The study analyzed the economic and health burden of antibiotic resistance for 122 countries. In the most pessimistic scenario, by 2050, GDP losses in China could be nearly $722 billion a year, followed by the US ($295.7 billion), EU ($187 billion), Japan ($65.7 billion), and the UK ($58.6 billion). The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts AMR deaths will rise by 60% by 2050, with significant numbers expected to die each year from antibiotic-resistant infections.
Financial implications
Global healthcare costs for treating AMR could skyrocket
The study also predicts that global healthcare costs for treating AMR could rise by nearly $176 billion a year. In the UK, these costs would jump from $900 million to $3.7 billion, and in the US from $15.5 billion to just under $57 billion. Higher rates of resistant bugs would also reduce workforce productivity in the UK, EU, and US by 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.4%, respectively, according to the study's findings.
Economic growth
Countries need to invest more in combating superbugs
The study suggests that if countries invest more in combating superbugs by improving access to new antibiotics and high-quality treatment of these infections, the US economy would grow by $156.2 billion a year and the UK's by £9.3 billion ($12 billion) by 2050. Dr. Mohsen Naghavi from IHME stressed that "the threat of AMR is increasing," and immediate action is needed from all stakeholders to prevent existing medicines from becoming ineffective against simple infections.