Russian economist sacked for warning about Ukraine war consequences
What's the story
Andrei Klepach, the chief economist at Russia's second-largest bank VEB.RF, was recently sacked after he publicly warned President Vladimir Putin about the economic consequences of the ongoing war with Ukraine. Speaking at a Nikitsky Club session, Klepach said Russia would not win a "war of attrition" with Ukraine and the West. He also dismissed predictions of Ukraine's imminent collapse as misguided.
Economic concerns
Klepach's warning on Russia's economic struggles
Klepach also warned that Russia's economy is increasingly suffering due to Western sanctions and the blockade.
He said damages from Ukrainian strikes on ports, infrastructure, chemical plants, and oil refineries are increasing.
The country is also lagging behind in technological advancement as military production takes precedence over science and innovation.
Historical parallels
Parallels drawn to past crises
Klepach drew parallels between the current situation and past crises in Russia, such as the February Revolution of 1917 and the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991.
He warned that if things continue on this path, they will lead to a "social crisis" at a time "when nobody particularly expects it."
Klepach warned this was reminiscent of Lenin's written remark in December 1916: "we will not live to see it," which he did, just months later.
Dismissal details
Klepach's firing ordered by the Kremlin
Klepach's firing from VEB.RF was reportedly ordered by the Kremlin and was linked to his critical remarks about Russia's economic and political development.
An acquaintance said his departure was "connected to his personal, harsh assessments of the country's economic and political development."
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian central bank, called Klepach one of Russia's best macroeconomists, who wasn't afraid to voice differing opinions.
Economic strain
Russia's economy facing toughest times since invasion of Ukraine
Russia's economy is facing its toughest times since Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The budget deficit reached 5.87 trillion rubles ($81 billion) in just four months of 2026, far exceeding the annual target.
Ukrainian strikes have also damaged warehouses of Wildberries, Russia's largest e-commerce retailer, raising concerns about its financial stability and impacting independent sellers reliant on the platform.