Aluminum prices hit $3,000/tonne for the 1st time since 2022
Aluminum prices have climbed to around $3,000 per ton as of January 2026—driven by China's limits on smelting and new emission rules.
Analyst surveys, including Consensus Economics and the World Bank, suggest prices could average $2,700 this year and might even climb as high as $3,200.
That's a big leap from the sub-$2,000 days seen not long ago.
What's pushing prices up?
Global supply is tight: South32's Mozal smelter in Mozambique is shutting down due to power issues, and LME aluminum stocks have dropped 20% to multi-year lows.
In Mexico, premiums are set to top $400/mt in 2026 despite US tariffs.
Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot stockpiles are rising fast thanks to more casting.
How does this affect demand?
With prices so high and stricter environmental controls (like those in Gongyi), demand has cooled off a bit as companies pull back on orders.
Still, China isn't slowing down production anytime soon—smelting caps and emissions trading are expected to keep global supply steady but pricey for a while.