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    Home / News / Business News / China's factory output beats expectations despite Trump's tariffs
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    China's factory output beats expectations despite Trump's tariffs
    Industrial output rose 6.1% year-on-year in April

    China's factory output beats expectations despite Trump's tariffs

    By Mudit Dube
    May 19, 2025
    10:01 am

    What's the story

    China's industrial output has beaten forecasts for April, further strengthening the resilience of the world's second-largest economy.

    The National Bureau of Statistics said industrial output rose 6.1% year-on-year last month, slightly lower than March's 7.7%.

    The growth beat the median estimate of a 5.7% rise in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, reflecting strong economic performance despite continued trade tensions with the US.

    Economic indicators

    Retail sales and investment growth show mixed results

    Retail sales, a key gage of consumer spending, rose 5.1% in April, compared to March's 5.9% increase and below economists' expectations.

    Growth in fixed-asset investment also slowed to 4% over the first four months of the year.

    Despite the mixed results, China's urban unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in April from March's 5.2%, reflecting some resilience in the labor market amid economic headwinds.

    Trade impact

    Trade tensions impact on China's economy

    The latest economic data gives a complete picture of how China has dealt with rising trade tensions with the US.

    Although the two reached a truce in their tariff war in May, uncertainty over further negotiations could possibly discourage businesses from ramping up production or investing in new projects.

    However, the robust performance of industrial production indicates China has avoided a major slowdown amid Donald Trump's trade war.

    Export performance

    China's exports and international growth forecasts

    In April, China's exports also beat expectations as companies diverted goods to Southeast Asia and Europe to compensate for a decline in shipments to the US.

    Several major international banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., have raised their forecasts for China's 2025 growth. However, they still remain below Beijing's target of around 5%.

    Many economists think this de-escalation may buy the government more time before further stimulus.

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