India's petroleum product exports fall 10% in June
What's the story
India's export of petroleum products witnessed a nearly 10% decline in June, according to Kpler data. The country exported an average of 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from May's figure of 1.32 million bpd. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the decline was slightly lower at 3.7%, with exports dropping from June 2024's figure of 1.24 million bpd.
Export destinations
UAE, Australia, and Singapore were top destinations for exports
The UAE, Singapore, and Australia were the top destinations for India's petroleum product exports in June. Exports to the UAE increased significantly from May's 81,673bpd to June's 115,944bpd. Similarly, shipments to Australia rose from 50,500bpd in May to 70,746bpd last month. Exports to Singapore declined by 42% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. European exports saw a major spike, with shipments nearly doubling to 360,000bpd from May's figures of 60,474bpd.
Market shift
India has become a major fuel supplier to Europe
India has become a major fuel supplier to Europe in recent months, after European countries started shunning Russian supplies following its invasion of Ukraine. This shift has been aided by India's geographical diversification of its export basket. Despite a decline in exports to Singapore, the overall export basket remained geographically diversified.
Export forecast
Exports likely to remain strong in near future
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, said India's refined product exports are likely to remain strong in the near future. He noted that refinery utilization is high but not at peak levels due to maintenance work on key exporters like Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL). Ritolia also emphasized that if crude intake levels are sustained, India can continue its strong export momentum, especially to demand centers in Southeast Asia and Europe.
Trade challenges
Geopolitical tensions in Red Sea region
Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea region have diverted traffic and increased fuel costs, adding 10 days to Asia-Europe journeys. Further, rising tensions in West Asia threaten India's energy supplies, exposing it to price shocks due to its heavy reliance on crude oil imports and refined oil product exports. Exports of refined oil products to the US also fell from May's figure of 84,099bpd to June's 54,309bpd. The two nations have recently agreed to deepen their energy and trade cooperation.