India's dairy sector faces potential losses from US trade deal
A new SBI report warns that a possible US-India trade deal could seriously impact Indian dairy farmers.
If the deal goes through, milk prices in India might drop by 15%, costing farmers over ₹1 lakh crore each year.
With imports expected to rise by 25 million tons, about 80 million smallholder farmers could see their incomes take a big hit.
Deal could lead to imports filling gap
The report estimates the Indian milk sector could lose up to ₹1.8 lakh crore, with farmers shouldering most of the blow.
The deal may lead to less local milk supply and more demand, widening the gap that imports would have to fill.
US has large-scale dairy farms, India has small family ones
Unlike the US, where large farms get heavy subsidies, India's dairy industry is built on millions of small family farms.
Dairy provides jobs for nearly 8 crore people and makes up about 3% of India's economy.
A sudden shift could disrupt this balance and put many livelihoods at risk.
India has strict rules for imported dairy
India has strict rules for imported dairy—no antibiotics or growth hormones allowed—which the US sees as unfair barriers at the WTO.
Plus, there are worries here about health risks from some US dairy practices.
These issues are making trade talks even trickier for both sides.