AI could displace 11M US workers by 2035: McKinsey
What's the story
A recent study from consulting firm McKinsey & Co. has revealed that artificial intelligence (AI) could displace around 11 million American workers by 2035. This accounts for nearly 7% of the current US workforce. The report highlights that office, retail, and logistics roles are particularly vulnerable to this shift in job dynamics due to AI advancements.
Workforce impact
Surge in job transitions expected
The McKinsey report predicts a major surge in job transitions over the next decade.
Historically, about 215,000 US workers change occupations every year. However, with AI's influence, this number could triple by 2035.
The transition isn't going to be easy for most people as McKinsey's analysis shows that six out of seven workers will have to undergo significant retraining and face income loss during this period.
Sector vulnerability
Vulnerable sectors and jobs
The McKinsey study identifies three major sectors where full-time employees are most likely to be displaced by AI: office and administrative support, retail and sales, as well as transportation and logistics.
These sectors include jobs such as customer-service representatives, cashiers, and warehouse workers.
The report also highlights that low-income workers in these sectors are nearly eight times more likely than high earners to switch jobs due to AI-related changes.
Future uncertainties
Uncertainties in the predictions
Like many forecasts of its kind, the McKinsey analysis is based on variables that are hard to predict, like how quickly companies will adopt AI and how it will affect labor demand across sectors.
The study also considers broader trends such as an aging population.
Given these uncertainties, the authors estimate that anywhere from six million to 16 million workers could be forced to switch occupations due to AI by 2035.
Proposed solutions
Need for government intervention
McKinsey suggests several ways federal, state, and local governments can help workers transition into new jobs.
These include providing more granular and real-time labor-market data as well as funding retraining programs.
Tanguy Catlin, a senior partner at the McKinsey Global Institute and one of the report's authors, noted that previous labor market transformations like America's shift from agriculture took place much slower than this projected pace of change due to AI.