This asteroid may hit Moon in 2032
What's the story
A small asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, could collide with the Moon in December 2032. The impact would be a major event, possibly the largest lunar impact in over 5,000 years. The asteroid is estimated to be about 53-67 meters wide and could release energy equivalent to six million tons of TNT. That's about 400 times more than the Hiroshima bomb!
Impact details
Potential impact on the Moon and visibility from Earth
If asteroid 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon, it could create a crater nearly one kilometer wide. The collision would also produce a bright flash visible from Earth, especially in eastern North America and Hong Kong. "I'd expect it'll be a very bright point of light on the Moon for a few seconds," said Dr. Andrew Rivkin, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
Trajectory uncertainty
Uncertainty over asteroid's trajectory and potential deflection methods
Currently, the chance of 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon is just 4%. However, this could change as more observations are made. The asteroid will reappear from behind the Sun in February, giving scientists a chance to refine its trajectory data using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). As for deflection methods, one suggestion was to "nuke" YR4 with a spacecraft launched between late 2029 and late 2031.
Safety concerns
Concerns over lunar impact and satellite safety
Experts are worried that a lunar impact could send debris flying toward satellites. However, some believe this presents a good opportunity to test defense systems for the Moon, where habitable outposts for deep-space exploration are expected by mid-2030s or later. The lack of an atmosphere on the Moon makes it a suitable place for testing such defenses.
Defense strategy
Kinetic impactor as a viable planetary defense method
The only proven planetary defense method is the kinetic impactor, which NASA used in 2022 to hit a harmless moonlet called Dimorphos. Rahil Makadia, a planetary defense researcher from the University of Illinois, said that asteroid 2024 YR4 is small enough for a kinetic impact spacecraft to "robustly disrupt it." However, some experts suggest waiting for more data before deciding on an early mission toward YR4.