El Nino may push global warming beyond 2°C: Study
What's the story
A powerful El Nino weather pattern could push the monthly global average temperature past the critical threshold of 2°C for the first time in recorded history. This prediction comes from a study by researchers at a University of Miami-based ocean and atmospheric research center. The likelihood of this happening in early 2027 is between 35% and 40%, according to Ben Kirtman, dean at Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science at Miami.
Weather patterns
Strongest El Nino on record
The current El Nino is expected to be the strongest in modern history, significantly raising the odds of a month being 2°C hotter than pre-industrial levels.
The prediction comes as this summer has already seen record-breaking heat and devastating wildfires across Europe.
In addition to raising temperatures, the developing El Nino is also likely to worsen drought conditions and put pressure on food production in certain regions worldwide.
International efforts
Global warming limit set in Paris climate accord
The idea of limiting climate change to 2°C dates back to the mid-1970s.
Four decades later, around 200 countries agreed in Paris on this target while also aiming to keep heating below 1.5°C as a long-term average over about two decades.
However, the world could exceed this stretch goal by the end of this decade, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Climate impact
Consequences of exceeding temperature thresholds
Crossing the 2°C threshold for a single month or 1.5°C in the long term could be largely symbolic.
However, as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted in its latest reports, every bit of warming alters temperatures, precipitation patterns, and soil moisture levels.
Kirtman emphasized that crossing this threshold is crucial because it will soon be measured how many months per year we cross these limits.