Can meteor showers hurt future space missions?
What's the story
NASA estimates that around 48.5 tons of space debris enters Earth's atmosphere every day. The debris varies in size from tiny micrometeoroids to larger particles that create shooting stars and fireballs when they burn up during atmospheric entry. As Earth passes through debris streams shed by asteroids and comets, meteor showers increase the density of this space junk around our planet.
Impact risk
Risks of micrometeoroids
Micrometeoroids, which travel at speeds averaging 35,420km/h, can cause significant damage if they collide with a spacecraft. The impact could puncture or dent the hull of the spacecraft, damaging critical systems or even causing a catastrophic rupture. There's also the possibility that a micrometeoroid could breach one of Orion's heat-resistant outer tiles, compromising its ability to withstand reentry temperatures.
Design considerations
Designing spacecraft to withstand impacts
Modern spacecraft like the Orion capsule for Artemis Moon missions have been designed with micrometeoroid impacts in mind. "Orion spacecraft material selection and thicknesses have been optimized for [micrometeoroid and orbital debris] (MMOD) protection and risk balancing," said Mike Heckwolf, Orion crew and mission risk integrator at Lockheed Martin. He added that "hypervelocity impact testing is conducted to confirm impact physics, characterize damage survivability, and verify performance of the Orion spacecraft MMOD design."
Monitoring efforts
NASA's assessment of meteoroid risks
NASA and its partners conduct regular risk assessments of the micrometeoroid environment before and during a mission. However, only severe events are considered a major concern. "Only a handful of the more than 1,000 known meteor showers exceed the sporadic background by more than 5% — like the Geminids, for example — [which is] the strongest annual shower," explained NASA Meteoroid Environments Office lead Bill Cooke, in an email to Space.com. The real mission disruptors are meteor storms and outbursts that dramatically increase interplanetary debris in Earth's orbit.
Safety measures
Precautions during meteor storms
During intense meteor storm events, hundreds or even thousands of shooting stars could be seen burning through Earth's skies each hour. However, the distance between micrometeoroids in space would still likely be measured in miles. If a major meteor shower outburst or storm is forecasted during a mission or crew activity, NASA would delay the mission or keep the crew inside until it passes.
Future forecasts
Predicted meteor outbursts over the next decade
Robert Lunsford from the American Meteor Society has predicted four possible meteor outbursts over the next decade. These include events related to the Perseids (August 12, 2028) and Leonids (November 17, 2033; November 18 and 19, 2034). The strongest of these is expected to be the Perseid outburst with rates ranging from 500-1,000 meteors per hour.