New 'CRASH clock' warns: satellite collisions could happen in days, not months
A new study says if we stopped steering satellites away from each other, a major crash could happen in just 2.8 days—down from 121 days back in 2018.
The new CRASH Clock tool tracks this risk, and the sharp drop is mostly because of the boom in giant satellite groups like Starlink.
More satellites, more close calls
LEO (low-Earth orbit) is getting crowded fast—there are now nearly 24,200 tracked objects up there, almost double since 2019.
Satellites zip within a kilometer of each other every 22 seconds across these megaconstellations.
If we lost control for even one day, there's a real chance of a collision that could trigger Kessler syndrome—a chain reaction making parts of space too risky to use.
Starlink's lead—and its risks
Starlink has over 9,000 satellites and dominates LEO traffic. In busy zones, its satellites pass close every 11 minutes and need frequent dodging—about 40 maneuvers per year per satellite.
But a major solar storm could disrupt their ability to perform avoidance maneuvers, raising the odds of something going wrong.