Extreme heat may double by 2050, India likely worst-hit: Study
What's the story
A new study by researchers from the University of Oxford has warned that accelerating global warming could expose billions to extreme heat in the coming decades. The research estimates that if global temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, around 3.79 billion people could be living under extreme heat conditions by 2050. This scenario is increasingly likely, scientists say.
Heat impact
Extreme heat exposure to rise sharply
The study, published in Nature Sustainability predicts that extreme heat exposure will rise sharply as global temperatures near the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. In 2010, around 23% of the world's population was exposed to extreme heat; this could increase to 41% soon. Regions like the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos and Brazil are expected to see rapid increases in heat exposure.
Population impact
Densely populated countries to bear the brunt
The study also notes that densely populated countries such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria and the Philippines will likely be most affected by extreme heat. Even historically cooler regions like Austria and Canada won't be spared. A two-degree rise could double hot days in these countries compared to levels between 2006-2016.
Regional impact
UK, Sweden, Finland to see significant increase in hot days
The study predicts that the UK, Sweden and Finland could see increases of around 150% in the number of hot days. Norway and Ireland may witness even larger rises of over 200%. Lead author Dr. Jesus Lizana said most changes in heating and cooling demand will happen before reaching the 1.5°C threshold. He emphasized that adaptation efforts must start sooner than expected, as buildings in cooler regions aren't designed for prolonged heat.
Call to action
'Wake-up call' for global leaders
Dr. Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, called on global leaders to take immediate action. She said exceeding 1.5°C could have far-reaching impacts on health, education, agriculture and migration while increasing demand for cooling and energy. "Our findings should be a wake-up call," Khosla stressed. "To achieve the global goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, we must decarbonize the building sector while developing more effective and resilient adaptation strategies," she added.