Russia, Belarus may stage false flag-attacks on Poland: Think tank
What's the story
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned that Russia is preparing to stage false flag attacks on Poland's critical infrastructure in collaboration with Belarus and blame Ukraine. The think tank's warning is based on recent statements from Russian officials and foreign intelligence service (SVR), who "baselessly" claimed that Ukraine is planning to attack Poland and Romania. The officials cited Hungarian sources. Highly dependent on sources of energy imported from Russia, Hungary is a close ally of Moscow.
Blame game
Russia laying groundwork for potential false flag attacks
According to ISW, the SVR's statement from September 30 indicates that Russia is "setting information conditions so that Russia can blame Ukraine for any of the described attacks that Russia itself may conduct against Poland or other NATO states." The ISW also flagged Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova's remarks on September 26, in which she accused Ukraine of planning false flag drone strikes on Poland and Romania.
Twitter Post
Read ISW's warning here
WARNING: Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against Polish critical infrastructure and drone incursions and blame Ukraine.
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) September 30, 2025
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on September 30 baselessly accused Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false flag… pic.twitter.com/06UVj0IQXZ
Escalating conflict
Russia's airspace violations have raised alarm in NATO countries
The ISW's warning comes amid rising tensions between Russia and several NATO member states. Poland, Estonia, and Romania have accused Russia of violating their airspace with fighter jets and drones. In a major incident, Poland shot down Russian drones in its airspace on September 9. Meanwhile, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have also reported drone sightings near their territories.
Sabotage allegations
Zakharova accused Ukraine of planning sabotage in Romania, Poland
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova had earlier claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was behind these plans to create a "casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO." Zakharova detailed steps in Ukraine's alleged plan, including repairing downed Russian drones, equipping them with combat warheads, and directing them at major NATO transport hubs under the guise of 'Russian drones.'