India's GDP to grow at 6.5-6.8% in FY27: Deloitte
What's the story
Deloitte India has projected a GDP growth rate of 6.5-6.8% for the current fiscal year (FY27). The forecast is based on expectations that the economy will strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by festive demand, monetary easing, and gradually stabilizing global conditions. The report was released in Deloitte's latest Economic Outlook publication.
Global challenges
'Goldilocks phase' disrupted by geopolitical tensions
Deloitte's report noted that India entered 2026 in a 'Goldilocks phase,' with macroeconomic fundamentals looking unusually well balanced.
However, geopolitical developments changed the global landscape, including tensions in the Middle East that disrupted key shipping routes.
This led to commodity price volatility and dampened investor sentiment, resulting in a wider trade deficit, continued capital outflows, and a sharp depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar within weeks.
Revised projections
RBI revises GDP growth estimate to 6.6%
In light of these global challenges, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal year to 6.6% from an earlier projection of 6.9%.
This adjustment comes after a strong 7.7% growth in the previous fiscal year (2025-26).
Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar acknowledged that "the global environment has become considerably more uncertain."
Weather-related uncertainties
Weather-related uncertainties a major risk
Majumdar also highlighted weather-related uncertainties, especially the impact of El Nino on agricultural output and food prices, as a major risk to India's economic outlook.
She said, "While recent geopolitical developments and the RBI's policy measures may help cushion some of these risks, weather-related uncertainties, particularly the impact of El Nino on agricultural output and food prices, remain an important downside risk."
Despite these challenges, Deloitte remains optimistic about India's medium-term growth prospects.
Trade agreements
FTAs as a driver for future growth
Deloitte's report emphasized India's accelerated pursuit of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with large, strategically important markets as a major driver for future growth.
Majumdar said, "As FTAs deepen, India's priority must be to convert market access into lasting competitiveness."
She also stressed that trade policy should be complemented by industrial policy, world-class infrastructure, stronger domestic supplier ecosystems, easier compliance and continued investment in innovation and skills.