Why India may be unable to export sugar in 2027
What's the story
India could face a shortage of sugar for exports next year, owing to concerns over the 2027 crop. Deepak Ballani, Director General of the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), said below-normal rainfall in key sugar-producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka has raised fears of tighter domestic supplies. Several regions are already witnessing drought-like conditions due to deficient monsoon rainfall.
Crop evaluation
Clearer picture on production by 3rd week of October
Ballani said it's too early to predict next year's sugar production.
He added that ISMA is conducting an on-ground assessment and expects a clearer picture by the second or third week of October.
Given these crop concerns, he doesn't expect sugar exports next year. Instead, India may have to rely on imports to maintain adequate domestic stocks.
Market dynamics
Brazil vessels arrive as India awaits sugar import window
Ballani said domestic sugar prices are currently lower than international rates, making imports commercially challenging.
Some vessels from Brazil have already arrived but the industry is waiting for international prices to become more viable.
"We will have to primarily import this 1 million so that we have sufficient sugar in the country, but export I think is out of window," he said.
Industry outlook
Ethanol production to focus on C-heavy molasses
On ethanol production, Ballani expects any diversion to come mainly from C-heavy molasses instead of sugarcane juice or B-heavy molasses.
This would allow ethanol production without affecting sugar output at a time when the next crop remains uncertain.
For the upcoming festive season, ISMA expects the Indian government's October sugar release quota to be around 23-25 lakh metric tons (LMT).