Leonid meteor shower will become less active this year
What's the story
The Leonid meteor shower, one of the most anticipated celestial events, is expected to be less active this year. The shower is caused by debris from Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which sweeps through the inner solar system every 33 1/3 years. When Earth crosses these dust trails, we see meteors. However, this year's encounter with Tempel-Tuttle's debris trail will be much weaker than in previous years.
Comet distance
Comet's distance affects meteor shower's intensity
Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which last passed the inner solar system in 1998, is currently 1.11 billion miles from the Sun. This distance is well beyond Saturn's orbit.
At this point in its orbit, there are only a scattered few particles left behind by the comet's nucleus a millennium or two ago.
These particles will result in a low Leonid meteor shower this year with an estimated rate of 10 to 15 meteors per hour under ideal conditions.
Viewing tips
How to watch the meteor shower?
To view the Leonids, find a dark location away from city lights and tall structures.
The best time to look for meteors is after midnight when the constellation Leo will be high in the sky.
This year, the Moon won't interfere with viewing as it will set before 11:00pm local time (US) on Monday night, leaving a dark sky for meteor spotting.
Past events
History of the Leonid meteor shower
The Leonid meteor shower has a history of spectacular displays, especially in 1833 and 1966 when tens of thousands of meteors were observed per hour.
However, in recent years, the rates have been lower with peaks observed in 1999, 2001, and 2002.
These past events highlight the variability and unpredictability of the Leonid meteor shower over time.
Upcoming forecasts
Next big Leonid outburst expected in 2034
French meteor expert Jeremie Vaubaillon's 2005 paper predicts the next big Leonid outburst in 2034, with rates possibly reaching up to 2,000 meteors per hour.
However, in 2029, Jupiter is expected to alter Comet Tempel-Tuttle's trajectory through space.
This could make it impossible to witness a repeat of the Great Leonid Storm of 1966 at least until the early years of the next century.