Meta nearly bought Kalshi before building Arena with play money
Technology
Meta almost bought Kalshi, a big name in prediction markets, before working on its own app, Arena.
Talks between Mark Zuckerberg and Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour fizzled out last year, reportedly due to legal worries or just a refusal from Mansour.
Meta switched gears and built Arena itself.
Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, which let people bet real money on outcomes, Arena uses only play money and lets Meta's AI decide the results.
Prediction markets surge, Meta joins Kalshi
Prediction markets are having a moment: monthly trading shot up from $28 billion to $220 billion in just a year, mostly thanks to sports betting hype.
Even after the failed buyout, Meta teamed up with Kalshi in March 2026 to bring its markets straight into Threads.