Microsoft and partners developed probabilistic bias correction for 2-to-six-week forecasts

Technology Oct 17, 2026

Researchers at Microsoft and collaborating institutions developed a machine learning tool called Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) that sharpens weather forecasts for the next two to six weeks.

In tests, PBC made forecast skill improve for 98% of the evaluated precipitation targets and forecast skill improve for 92% of temperature targets.

This could be a big deal for farmers who rely on good timing for planting and irrigation.

PBC could broaden Indian forecast access

If PBC works well in India, it could help farmers plan smarter and give disaster teams more time to prepare for extreme weather.

Plus, since PBC is open source and runs on regular computers, even smaller weather services can use it, potentially making reliable forecasts more accessible across the country.