China's Xi arrives in North Korea for summit with Kim
What's the story
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Pyongyang upon the latter's arrival on Monday. This is Xi's first visit to North Korea in seven years. The two-day summit comes as Kim feels emboldened by his close ties with Russia and his nuclear arsenal, giving him a sense of strength against the United States. Xi's visit coincides with the 65th anniversary of the 1961 China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance.
Diplomatic dynamics
Xi's visit a major diplomatic event
Xi's visit is a major diplomatic event, especially after last year's military parade in Beijing, where he hosted Kim. The two nations have since resumed some passenger rail and air services. This summit is expected to be different from Xi's 2019 visit, when a meeting between Kim and then US President Donald Trump failed over North Korea's denuclearization and sanctions relief.
Military display
China-North Korea relations
Ahead of Xi's arrival, North Korea announced plans for a 10,000-ton naval destroyer and reiterated its status as a nuclear-armed state. Andrew Gilholm from Control Risks called Xi's visit "Having Xi visit Pyongyang is a big deal and the culmination of a good couple of 'comeback' years for Kim." However, relations between the two countries have been strained over North Korea's nuclear program, with Beijing publicly opposing Pyongyang's nuclear tests.
Economic balance
Economic cooperation expected to be focus of talks
Despite their close ties, North Korea has been careful not to become too dependent on China. John Delury from the Asia Society was quoted as saying by Reuters that support from Russia gives North Korea confidence to increase trade and investment with China. The meeting is expected to focus on economic cooperation as North Korea embarks on a five-year development plan that includes expanding tourism and building more housing.
Tourism revival
Inter-Korean relations and North Korea's economic progress
Before the pandemic, Chinese tourists made up 90% of foreign visitors to North Korea. The first post-COVID leisure tourists were from Russia's Far East in February 2024. Despite shutting its borders in early 2020, North Korea has made economic progress, with little interest in engaging with the US or South Korea. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung hopes Xi can help improve inter-Korean relations through mediation.
Nuclear expansion
Kim likely to continue expanding nuclear arsenal
Kim has drawn red lines on his nuclear program, calling for an "exponential" expansion of North Korea's atomic arsenal. Yang Moo-jin from the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul said Kim is likely to continue expanding fissile-material production and deploying nuclear weapons. Christopher Green, a Korea specialist at Leiden University, told Reuters that Kim feels emboldened to expand North Korea's nuclear arsenal as long as he doesn't create outright instability in the region.