Gartner predicts AI will dominate IT work by 2030
What's the story
Gartner, a leading research and advisory company, has predicted that all work in IT departments will be done with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030. The prediction was made during a keynote address at the firm's Symposium event in Australia. Alicia Mullery, VP analyst at Gartner, revealed that currently 81% of work is done by humans without any assistance from AI.
Future projection
IT departments must show they deserve to keep added capacity
Gartner predicts that in five years, 75% of IT work will be human activity augmented by AI. The remaining portion will be performed solely by bots. This shift, according to Daryl Plummer, another VP analyst at Gartner, will give IT departments more labor capacity and they must show they deserve to keep it. He advised technology leaders to consult with their peers elsewhere in a business for value-adding opportunities that IT departments can execute.
Job dynamics
AI won't kill jobs immediately
Despite the shift toward AI, Gartner doesn't expect an "AI jobs bloodbath" in IT or other industries for at least five years. Currently, only 1% of job losses can be attributed to AI. However, Mullery and Plummer do predict a decline in entry-level jobs as senior staff can now handle tasks they would have previously assigned to juniors with the help of AI.
Adoption challenges
The high cost of AI could hinder adoption
Plummer warned that businesses may find it difficult to implement AI successfully due to the skyrocketing costs of running AI workloads. He compared this with ERP systems which have clear up-front costs: licensing, implementation, and training people to use them. However, unlike ERP systems, few organizations can keep up with the rapid pace of innovation from AI vendors.
Hidden expenses
CIOs aren't breaking even on their AI investments
Plummer also warned that organizations adopting AI should expect to uncover 10 unanticipated ancillary costs. These include the need for new datasets and managing multiple models. One such cost is using one AI model to check the output of others, a necessary step to verify accuracy. Due to these hidden costs, Gartner believes 65% of CIOs aren't breaking even on their AI investments.
Vendor advice
Hyperscalers should be key suppliers for IT execs
Despite the challenges, Plummer and Mullery advised IT execs to pursue AI. They recommended the big four hyperscalers - AWS, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba - as key suppliers due to their ability to marshal resources and talent. However, they labeled OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, DeepSeek and XAI "wildcard vendors," saying all are "not enterprise ready."