Asteroid that threatened Earth may collide with Moon in 2032
What's the story
Asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock that once posed a major threat to Earth, is now on scientists' radar for potentially colliding with the Moon in 2032.
The asteroid was first observed in December 2024 and is estimated to be between 53-67 meters wide.
In May 2025, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope tracked its trajectory, providing valuable insights after the asteroid had previously been obscured by the Sun.
Trajectory revision
Trajectory revised by Andy Rivkin's team at JHU
The asteroid's trajectory was revised by planetary astronomer Andy Rivkin's team at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, using data from Webb's Near-Infrared Camera.
This update increased the chances of a Moon impact from 3.8% to 4.3%.
However, even if it does collide with the Moon in 2032, experts say there is no need to worry as this won't affect Earth's safety or change the Moon's orbit significantly.
Risk assessment
Previously, asteroid had over 3% chance of hitting Earth
When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a more than 1% chance of hitting Earth. By February, the risk increased to 3.1%.
However, new orbital data quickly reduced concerns.
The asteroid has been too far away to observe since April, but scientists plan to monitor it again in 2028 for more data on its shape and composition.
Scientific opportunity
Potential Moon impact seen as scientific opportunity
The possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in 2032 is seen as a rare scientific opportunity.
If it does strike, scientists would be able to observe a real collision event firsthand.
This would provide valuable data for future planetary defense strategies and improve our understanding of such celestial objects.