Gold prices may touch ₹1L mark in H2 2025
What's the story
India's gold prices are tipped to rise in the second half of this year, possibly hitting the mark of ₹1 lakh per 10g. The prediction comes from a report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. The forecast is based on current price trends and market conditions, which suggest a bullish outlook for gold in the coming months.
Market resilience
Domestic gold prices rose by 0.6% in June
Unlike the global market, domestic gold prices in India rose by 0.6% in June. This increase was mainly due to a slight depreciation of the Indian Rupee (INR) by 0.2%. The report from ICICI Bank Global Markets noted that local gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, moving from the current range of ₹96,500-₹98,500 per 10g toward the ₹1 lakh mark in H2 2025.
Market dynamics
Gold imports have declined sequentially
In terms of volume, gold imports have declined sequentially, indicating a possible weakening of demand due to high prices. May saw gold imports worth $2.5 billion, down from $3.1 billion in April. However, data released by AMFI shows a net ETF inflow of ₹292 crore in May after two months of outflows, indicating strong investment-related demand for gold in local markets despite rising prices.
International trends
Investment demand for gold has remained strong globally
On the global front, investment demand for gold has remained strong despite a sequential fall in prices. The SPDR ETF flows in gold increased from 930 tons on June 1 to 948 tons on July 1. Speculative net long positions also rose by some 13,000 lots last month. However, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran improved risk sentiment and reduced demand for the yellow metal.