69% of CEOs predict recession due to Trump's tariffs: Survey
What's the story
According to a recent CNBC survey, an alarming 69% of CEOs expect an impending recession in the US. Most of these executives blame President Donald Trump's trade policies and tariffs for the potential economic downturn. Over 50% of surveyed CEOs believe a recession will occur in 2025. "This is the Trump recession," one executive said in the survey. Three out of four CEOs anticipating a recession believe it will be mild or moderate, not severe.
Economic impact
Layoffs and inflation concerns among CEOs
More than a third of respondents expect to implement layoffs this year due to Trump's economic policies. Meanwhile, 14% of participants said it was too early to decide on layoffs. A whopping 80% expect an increase in inflation, with one anonymous CEO criticizing Trump's trade policy as "disappointingly stupid and illogical."
Trade policy critique
CEOs express concerns over Trump's tariffs
CEOs have expressed concerns over Trump's tariffs affecting their suppliers and consumers. One executive said, "We can't control the impact of tariffs on the consumer mindset, which we imagine could be significant." Another CEO feared anti-American sentiment abroad due to these trade policies. JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual letter to shareholders Trump's tariffs could increase inflation and slow down growth.
Market response
Stock market reacts to Trump's tariffs
President Trump's announcement of the highest tariffs in over a century sent the stock market tumbling, erasing over $6 trillion of wealth in just two days. The dramatic shift came after strong economic fundamentals were reported in March, including job growth and low unemployment. However, after Trump's announcement on what he called "Liberation Day," markets saw their steepest declines since 2020.
Economic predictions
Experts predict recession amid trade policy uncertainties
JPMorgan's head of economic research Bruce Kasman increased the chances of a global recession to 60% from 40%. He cautioned the disruptive effect of US trade policies could push a healthy global expansion into recession. Nomura Chief Economist David Seif said he hasn't seen enough data to predict an outright recession but admitted it might feel like one due to weak consumption.