Trump's tariffs are bad but these Indian sectors may gain
What's the story
India's exports to the US are expected to fall by $5.76 billion (6.41%) in 2025 due to tariffs imposed with the Donald Trump administration, a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has found. The GTRI's analysis takes into consideration sector-specific exposure, changes in tariff rates, and competitive dynamics with major players such as China, Mexico, and Canada. The report also highlights sectors where India could gain ground due to these new tariffs. They include textiles, kitchenware, and pharmaceuticals.
Forecast
Impact on India's merchandise exports
The GTRI report predicts a moderate impact on India's merchandise exports to the US as a result of the tariffs. India exported goods worth $89.81 billion to the US in 2024, but the number is expected to fall by about $5.76 billion this year due to new trade measures. The study also highlights a few key product groups likely to see reduced exports due to these tariffs, including fish and crustaceans, iron or steel goods, and diamonds/gold products.
Tariff effects
Sector-wise impact of the tariffs
The GTRI research shows that vehicle and auto parts exports are expected to drop by 12.1%, while electrical, telecom, and electronic goods may decline by 12%. Other sectors including plastic articles, carpets, petroleum products, organic chemicals, and machinery are also likely to see a drop in exports due to the new tariffs.
Growth potential
Opportunities amid tariff disruptions
Despite the overall negative impact of the new tariffs, there are some pockets of opportunity for India's exports to the US. The GTRI report claims India could see modest gains in sectors where the US has imposed higher tariffs on competing countries. These include apparel, textiles, ceramic goods, albuminoidal substances (glues and enzymes), inorganic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals which may see an increase in export volume.