Trump's tariff threats push India's electronics output to 33-month high
What's the story
India's output of computers and electronics soared to a 33-month high in March, clocking an impressive growth rate of 21.5%. The sharp increase is up from last month's rate of 11.2%, government data released on April 28 showed. The increase in output is attributed to Indian manufacturers rushing goods to the US, ahead of proposed tariffs on Indian imports.
Market response
Tariff fears drive electronics rush
Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research, explained that manufacturers are trying to safeguard themselves from proposed tariff hikes. This has resulted in an extraordinary rush for orders in the electronics sector. For instance, Apple reportedly airlifted five flights of iPhones last month, as a precautionary measure against potential tariff increases.
Economic effects
US tariffs impact Indian economy
On April 2, President Trump announced a 36% duty on Indian goods under his "reciprocal tariffs" policy to achieve "fair trade." A week later, he paused all reciprocal tariffs, barring those on Chinese goods, for 90 days. However, a baseline tariff of 10% remains in place. The US-China trade conflict has seen both countries impose duties of up to 145%.
Future prospects
India poised for more gains in electronics sector
Reportedly, Apple and Samsung could also move production to India to cater to the American market. In 2024, the US made up 35% of India's smartphone exports, a notable increase from 14% in 2022. This trend could mean future gains for India as it establishes itself as a major player in global electronics production.
Manufacturing surge
Broader industrial growth in India
The growth in computer and electronics production comes as part of a wider trend of industrial growth in India. Production of electrical equipment surged 15.7% in March from 9.5% in February, while machinery and equipment production hit a three-month high of 8%. Motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers production also increased to an 11-month high of 10.3%, fueled by strong demand across sectors.
Economic outlook
Economists weigh in on future export trends
Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge, speculated that manufacturing may have benefited from companies stocking up on inventory ahead of the anticipated announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, suggested that while there is evidence of an increase in exports to the US, it remains unclear whether this is due to a shift away from other regions or an increase in output for the current month.