Texas flood: Did inadequate weather forecast, staffing contribute to tragedy
What's the story
The recent flash floods in Texas have reignited a debate over the impact of staffing cuts at the National Weather Service (NWS). The disaster, which has claimed at least 90 lives, including campers on the Guadalupe River's banks, has drawn criticism from local officials who slammed what they called inadequate forecasts. While most Republicans in Texas avoided directly blaming President Donald Trump's staffing cuts, Democrats quickly linked them to the tragedy.
Staffing reductions
Current and former NWS officials defend agency's response
Per AP, the NWS office responsible for the affected region had five staffers on duty during the disaster, a number consistent with overnight shifts during severe weather. Defending the agency's response, current and former NWS officials pointed to urgent flash flood warnings issued before the river rose. The Guadalupe River rose by 8 meters (26 feet) in just 45 minutes, triggered by torrential rainfall in the center of the state of Texas.
Budget reductions
Trump administration has cut hundreds of jobs at NWS
However, questions remain concerning the level of cooperation and communication between the NWS and local officials on the night of the flood. "There is a real question as to whether the communication of weather information occurred in a way that was sub-optimal," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California Los Angeles. "The impact might have been partially averted if some of the people at the weather service...were still employed—which they were not in some...local offices."
Expert
Trump administration has cut hundreds of jobs at NWS
The Trump administration has cut hundreds of jobs at NWS, with staffing down by at least 20% at nearly half of its field offices. The White House has also proposed slashing its parent agency's budget by 27%. But Trump said the job eliminations did not affect any weather forecasting. "No one expected it (the flood). Nobody saw it," he said.
Safety concerns
'Missed forecasts and warnings could lead to fatalities'
Arguing otherwise, former officials and experts have warned that these indiscriminate job reductions could lead to a brain drain, jeopardizing timely and accurate forecasts. Louis Uccellini, a former NWS director, said fatigue from understaffing could lead to missed forecasts and warnings. "The people are being tired out, working through the night and then being there during the day because the next shift is short-staffed...Anything like that could create a situation in which important elements of forecasts and warnings are missed."
Budget scrutiny
NOAA's budget and private forecasting companies
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the agency that oversees the NWS, has a budget of just under $6.4 billion for fiscal year 2024, with less than $1.4 billion allocated to NWS. This is a 25% cut to the NOAA's current annual budget. Experts worry that cuts could lead to taxpayers financing the operation of satellites while private companies issue forecasts, potentially delaying emergency alerts.