IMD's 'faulty' alerts, early monsoon onset prediction sparks debate
What's the story
Mumbai was taken by surprise on Monday when the city witnessed heavy rain, breaking a 107-year-old record for May.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued a yellow alert for mild rain for the day, only to upgrade it to red within hours, indicating extreme rains.
An IMD official said the alert level was upgraded after the Colaba observatory recorded over 79mm of rainfall.
The IMD had also predicted the onset of monsoon by Wednesday, which was refuted by experts.
Forecast criticism
Experts question IMD's alert system and monsoon prediction
Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK, slammed the IMD's decision to upgrade alerts after rainfall was recorded.
He said weather models and satellite images should have indicated rain could be declared earlier.
"The current winds are approaching from the northwest...so an alert...could have been declared a day prior. By 12.30pm, when IMD issued red alert, most of the weather activity had already passed," he was quoted as saying by HT.
Monsoon debate
IMD's early monsoon prediction sparks debate among meteorologists
The IMD's Regional Meteorological Centre in Mumbai had also declared an early monsoon onset, the earliest in 35 years for Maharashtra.
Sushma Nair, a scientist at IMD Mumbai, explained that southwest monsoon winds reached Mumbai earlier than usual this year.
However, Rajesh Kapadia, author of Vagaries of Weather, disagreed with the criteria used by IMD to announce the monsoon.
"We are currently experiencing winds from the northwest, so the rains will pass in two to three days," he said.
Weather forecast
Experts predict dry weather after current rainfall spell
Deoras stated that if the current rainfall activity hadn't occurred, the IMD would have waited to announce the monsoon.
Kapadia added, "Because the city has already received rainfall of over 200 mm, people think it is the monsoon already, so the weather station has declared it as such."
Both Deoras and Kapadia said the current rainfall activity would subside in two to three days, leading to dry weather.
The IMD has maintained a yellow alert till Thursday.