BJP could win majority in Karnataka today: Survey report
What's the story
A pre-poll survey has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could win a clear majority in the Karnataka Assembly elections if they were held now. This would be a first for the party in the state.
The survey was conducted by Hyderabad-based People's Pulse and Codemo Technologies and involved 10,481 respondents across Karnataka.
It predicts a BJP victory with 136 to 159 seats in the 224-member Assembly.
Political shift
Congress's seat projection and JD(S)'s decline
The ruling Congress party is projected to win between 62 and 82 seats, with its vote share declining to 40.3% from 42.88% in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to win only three to six seats as its vote share falls drastically from 18.3% to a mere five percent.
This indicates a major political shift toward a two-party system in Karnataka politics.
Leadership preference
Siddaramaiah remains popular despite Congress's decline
Despite the Congress's declining fortunes, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is still the most preferred leader in Karnataka.
The survey found that 29.2% of respondents chose him as their first choice for chief minister. His deputy, DK Shivakumar, was second with 10.7%.
Among BJP leaders, none crossed double digits individually—B.S Yediyurappa got 5.5%, state party president BY Vijayendra got 5.2% and former CM Basavaraj Bommai got 3.6%.
Governance rating
Survey reveals public satisfaction with Congress governance
The survey also highlighted public dissatisfaction with the performance of the Congress government.
While 48.4% of respondents rated governance as good or very good, a majority (51.6%) rated it average, poor, or very poor.
The findings indicate that anti-incumbency could play a major role in upcoming elections despite some popular welfare schemes launched by the government.
Welfare popularity
Gruha Lakshmi scheme most popular among welfare initiatives
Among five flagship welfare schemes of Congress, Gruha Lakshmi was the most popular. The scheme gives ₹2,000 per month to women heads of households and was supported by 45.4% respondents.
Other schemes like Shakti (free bus travel for women), Anna Bhagya (free food grains), Gruha Jyothi (free electricity) and Yuva Nidhi (unemployment allowance) were less popular in that order.
Caste census
Mixed opinions on caste census in Karnataka
The survey also looked at public opinion on the controversial Social and Educational Survey, or caste census.
While 42.3% of respondents trusted the data (26.3% fully and 16% partially), a large section (35%) distrusted it, while 22.7% were unaware of the report altogether.
Support for the caste census was notably higher among Congress supporters than among BJP voters.