China may witness over 1 million COVID-19 deaths in 2023
What's the story
As per the latest estimate from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the United States (US), the sudden lifting of China's strict COVID-19 restrictions could cause a spike in cases.
The study mentioned above also suggests that this might trigger a million (10 lakh) deaths through 2023.
Per IHME's prediction, COVID-19 cases in China would peak near April 1.
Context
Why does this story matter?
China reported 2,157 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, compared to Wednesday's 2,000 cases.
Furthermore, the country has also ramped up its vaccination drive.
The new data shows that China administered nearly 1.43 million doses until December 13.
This total is particularly higher than the numbers in November of nearly 1,00,000 to 2,00,000 shots every day, reported the news agency Reuters.
Numbers
3,22,000 deaths in China next year: Report
China's National Health Commission (NHC) has yet to report any official coronavirus deaths since the country lifted its "zero-COVID" restrictions.
Death due to the virus stands at 5,235; the last official death was reported on December 3.
The US-based IHME report that deaths will reach 3,22,000 next year in China, and a third of its citizens will have been infected by that time.
Aftermath
China's 'zero-COVID' restrictions lifted
After the massive public protests, Beijing lifted some of its toughest COVID restrictions in December.
However, China is experiencing a spike in cases, with fears of nearly 1.4 billion of its population being infected during the coming months.
"Nobody thought they would stick to zero-COVID as long as they did," IHME Director Christopher Murray said on Friday.
Context
China's major concerns
Major concerns for China include a large pool of susceptible people, the use of less effective vaccines and lower vaccine coverage among those 80 and older at the most significant risk of severe disease.
Many experts predict that some 60% of the country's population will eventually be infected, with a peak expected in January, hitting the vulnerable.
COVID deaths
Hong Kong University's study on China
In a study by Hong Kong researchers titled "Modelling the adjustment of COVID-19 response and exit from dynamic zero-COVID in China", Beijing is set to report almost 10 lakh (1 million) deaths due to coronavirus.
The study also suggested that the "surge of disease burden posed by reopening in December 2022-January 2023 would likely overload many local health systems across the country."
Numbers
9,64,400 possible deaths: Report
Gabriel Leung, co-authored by the medicine ex-dean of the University of Hong Kong, the study stated almost 684 people per million would die without a mass COVID vaccination booster drive and other vital measures to reduce the effect of the novel virus.
As per Bloomberg's estimates, this might result in 9,64,400 fatalities in China, which has a 1.41 billion population.