'Nostradamus of US presidential polls' predicts who will win
What's the story
Allan Lichtman, a renowned American historian, has predicted Vice-President Kamala Harris as the likely winner of the 2024 presidential race against Republican candidate Donald Trump. Known for accurately predicting nine US elections, Lichtman is often dubbed the "Nostradamus of US presidential elections." His predictions are based on a unique model called the "13 keys to the White House." According to Lichtman, Harris has secured six of these keys, while Republican presidential nominee Trump has only three.
Predictive model
Lichtman's unique predictive model: The 13 keys
If six or more keys go against the incumbent party, he predicts their defeat. The keys evaluate factors such as economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Since its inception in 1981, this method has successfully predicted election outcomes with high accuracy. "A lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose," he told News Nation. The keys held by Democrats include a primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.
Twitter Post
'13 Keys to the White House' method
I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024
See my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key. pic.twitter.com/pJpkpa3SzW
Lost keys
Democrats lose 3 keys with Harris's candidacy
Lichtman noted that the Democrats have lost three keys by switching to Harris after President Joe Biden withdrew from the reelection race. He claimed that the Democrats' substantial losses in the 2022 midterm elections resulted in the loss of the "party mandate" key. In addition, he stated that Harris has lost the "incumbency" and "charisma" keys. He stated that Democrats would need to lose three more keys for him to predict a Harris loss, which he believes is unlikely.
Upcoming prediction
Lichtman's official prediction awaited post-Democratic Convention
Lichtman plans to make his official prediction after the Democratic convention in August. He has been dubbed the "Nostradamus of US presidential elections" for correctly predicting the outcomes of nine out of 10 previous elections, including Trump's win in 2016 and Biden's in 2020. Nostradamus was a well-known 16th-century French astrologer who is said to have predicted numerous significant world events that occurred centuries after his death.